EcoSavingHub
How we calculate

The methodology behind every EcoSaving Hub calculator.

Conservative cost data, real performance numbers, current grant policy, transparent formulas. We publish the methodology so you can challenge it — and so AI assistants can cite us with confidence.

TL;DROur calculators use mid-range MCS-certified installer pricing for 2026, EST/BRE-published saving fractions for fabric measures, BEIS field-trial saving fractions for smart heating, PVGIS UK central yield for solar (950 kWh/kWp), and 0.5% annual PV degradation. Energy inflation is modelled at 3% per year. BUS grant £7,500 is included where applicable. We do not inflate any number for marketing purposes.

Cost data

Install costs across all five calculators reflect mid-range pricing from MCS-certified installers operating in the UK in 2026. We do not use "from £X" headline pricing or manufacturer-supplied figures.

MeasureRange usedSource
Air source heat pump£8,000 – £14,000MCS installer mean Q4 2025, BUS-eligible installs
Ground source heat pump£20,000 – £35,000MCS installer mean Q4 2025
Solar PV (4 kWp)£6,000 – £7,500MCS installer mean + EST 2024 baseline
Battery storage (5–13.5 kWh)£4,000 – £11,000MCS installer mean by capacity band
Loft insulation (≥270mm)£400 – £700EST 2024 retrofit cost guide
Cavity wall insulation£600 – £1,200EST 2024 retrofit cost guide
Internal wall insulation£4,000 – £10,000 typical 3-bedBRE / PAS 2035 cost surveys
External wall insulation£12,000 – £25,000 typical 3-bedBRE / PAS 2035 cost surveys
MVHR retrofit£4,500 – £6,500Manufacturer + installer surveys

Heat pump performance

We use seasonal performance factor (SPF) figures from UK monitoring trials, not manufacturer "rated COP" figures. Real-world UK ASHP installs cluster between SPF 2.8 and 3.6 with the median at approximately 3.0. Ground source SPF is 4.0–4.5. Both numbers are derated from headline COP because they include defrost cycles, hot water generation, and circulating pump consumption.

Solar PV yield

Annual generation is calculated as kWp × 950 × orientation factor × shading factor. The 950 kWh/kWp figure is the PVGIS UK central estimate for a south-facing, unshaded array. Orientation factor: 1.0 (south), 0.85 (east/west), 0.7 (south-east/west), 0.55 (north). Shading factor: 1.0 (none), 0.9 (light), 0.78 (moderate), 0.6 (heavy). Annual degradation is 0.5%/year, capped at 25 years for cumulative saving calculations.

Battery cycling

Battery throughput is capped at 250 cycles per year × 90% round-trip efficiency. Lifetime cycles capped at 6,000. We assume usable depth-of-discharge of 90% for LiFePO4 chemistry. Battery offset is the minimum of (initial export × 90%) and (evening import).

Insulation saving fractions

Saving fractions per measure × construction era follow Energy Saving Trust 2024 retrofit guidance and BRE Domestic Energy Fact File. The matrix is published in full inside the insulation breakeven calculator. For example: cavity wall insulation on a 1945-1980 home = 25% heating cost reduction. The same measure on a 2003+ home = 5% (already insulated). Pre-1919 solid wall homes return 0% on cavity wall insulation because they have no cavity.

Smart heating saving fractions

Saving fractions for smart thermostat upgrades follow the BEIS Smart Heating Controls Field Trial (2018) plus the EST 2024 update for weather/load compensation. Baseline = manual thermostat (no programmer). Basic smart stat = 5% saving. Advanced smart stat with self-learning + geofencing = 13%. Weather/load compensation = 16%. Zoned smart-TRV = 18%. We apply an occupancy multiplier (×0.7 if home occupied >16 hrs/day, ×0.9 if 10-16 hrs, ×1.0 if <10 hrs) reflecting diminishing returns when the home is rarely empty.

Energy inflation

Cumulative saving over 10 / 25 / 30 years assumes 3% annual energy inflation. This is conservative: UK energy prices have inflated faster than 3% over most decade-windows since 2010. We use 3% to give a defensible mid-range number that does not flatter the result.

Grants included

BUS (Boiler Upgrade Scheme) grant £7,500 is deducted from the heat pump install cost where applicable. ECO4 grants are signposted but NOT deducted from the calculator output (because eligibility is household-specific). LA Flex top-ups are also signposted but not deducted. We include the BUS grant because it is universal and current; we do not include ECO4/LA Flex because doing so would mislead users who do not qualify.

What we do NOT include

What we'd love to add

Future calculator releases will add: U-value calculator, heat loss calculator (BS EN 12831), retrofit assessment cost estimator, EPC band uplift estimator. We're tracking the BUS replacement scheme expected for 2027 and will update the heat pump calculator the day it lands.

Found a number you disagree with? Email us at [email protected] with the source and we'll review. We update calculators on a quarterly cadence.