Heat pump deployment in the UK has accelerated sharply since 2023, driven by the Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS), rising gas prices and the Future Homes Standard pipeline. This page consolidates the most recent UK heat pump installation data, BUS application statistics, MCS-certified installer counts and regional uptake patterns. Figures are drawn from MCS Data Dashboard, Ofgem BUS reporting and BEIS/DESNZ publications. Where 2026 figures are not yet finalised, we use the latest 2024 actuals plus 2025 trend estimates.
Total UK heat pump installations
According to MCS data published in early 2026, certified heat pump installations in the UK passed approximately 250,000 cumulative units by the end of 2025, with annual installs growing year-on-year for the fourth consecutive year. The market remains heavily skewed toward air source heat pumps (ASHPs), which now account for the overwhelming majority of new installs.
| Year | Annual MCS heat pump installs | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | ~36,000 | baseline |
| 2022 | ~57,000 | +58% |
| 2023 | ~40,000 | -30% |
| 2024 | ~58,000 | +45% |
| 2025 (est.) | ~75,000 | +29% |
Source: MCS Data Dashboard, year-end summaries. 2025 figures are estimated based on MCS interim data through Q3 2025.
Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS) uptake
The Boiler Upgrade Scheme launched in May 2022 and was extended in 2023 with the grant value increased to £7,500 for ASHPs and ground source heat pumps, and £5,000 for biomass boilers (in eligible rural areas). According to Ofgem's BUS dashboard, voucher applications climbed materially after the grant uplift.
- Approximate cumulative BUS vouchers issued (May 2022 - end 2025): ~50,000
- Approximate BUS voucher claims redeemed by end 2025: ~38,000
- Estimated FY25/26 voucher target: ~28,000-30,000
- ASHP share of BUS vouchers redeemed: approximately 92%
- GSHP share of BUS vouchers redeemed: approximately 7%
- Biomass share of BUS vouchers redeemed: approximately 1%
The conversion gap between vouchers issued and vouchers claimed sits at roughly 25-30%, reflecting installation delays, scheme dropouts and properties that ultimately did not proceed.
MCS-certified installer count
The MCS-certified installer base has grown in step with demand. According to MCS data published Q3 2025, the number of certified heat pump installer companies in the UK now stands at an estimated ~3,500-3,800, with engineers numbering roughly two to three times that figure. This is up from approximately 1,200 certified installer companies in 2022.
| Year | MCS-certified heat pump installer companies |
|---|---|
| 2022 | ~1,200 |
| 2023 | ~1,900 |
| 2024 | ~2,800 |
| 2025 (est.) | ~3,500-3,800 |
Source: MCS Installer Directory snapshots. Engineer-level counts vary because individual companies employ multiple certified engineers.
Average installation cost
Average UK heat pump installation costs vary widely by property type, system size, distribution upgrades and regional labour rates. Industry surveys and BUS-aligned installer pricing point to the following ranges before the BUS grant:
| System type | Typical pre-grant cost (GBP) | Typical post-grant cost (GBP) |
|---|---|---|
| ASHP, small/mid (5-8 kW) | £10,000-£13,000 | £2,500-£5,500 |
| ASHP, large (10-16 kW) | £13,000-£18,000 | £5,500-£10,500 |
| GSHP horizontal loop | £18,000-£30,000 | £10,500-£22,500 |
| GSHP borehole loop | £25,000-£45,000 | £17,500-£37,500 |
Figures are typical mid-range estimates from MCS-certified installer quotes during 2024-2025. Actual quotes vary by site survey, radiator/cylinder upgrade scope and location.
Regional installation patterns
Heat pump installation density varies sharply across UK nations and English regions. Higher uptake is generally seen in off-gas areas and rural counties, while urban gas-grid areas show lower per-capita install rates. The following table presents the approximate split of MCS-certified heat pump installations by UK nation, based on MCS data through 2024-2025.
| Nation | Approximate share of UK heat pump installs |
|---|---|
| England | ~80% |
| Scotland | ~12% |
| Wales | ~6% |
| Northern Ireland | ~2% |
Within England, the South West, South East and East of England consistently lead per-capita heat pump installation rates. The North West, North East and London have lower per-capita uptake, reflecting denser gas connections and higher proportions of flats/apartments where heat pumps are harder to retrofit.
ASHP vs GSHP market split and leading brands
Air source heat pumps dominate the UK residential market by volume, with ground source representing a small but established segment serving large rural properties and district heating. Leading brand share, based on MCS installation data and trade body reporting, is approximately as follows:
- Vaillant - approximately 20-25% of new ASHP installs
- Daikin - approximately 15-18%
- Mitsubishi Electric - approximately 12-15%
- Samsung - approximately 10-12%
- NIBE - approximately 8-10%
- Grant - approximately 5-8%
- Other (Worcester Bosch, Panasonic, LG, Stiebel Eltron, Ecodan and OEM-rebadged units) - the remainder
Source: industry estimates from MCS Installer Directory cross-referenced with brand reports. Brand share fluctuates quarter to quarter.
Top UK regions for heat pump density per 1,000 households
Heat pump density per 1,000 households is the most informative regional comparison metric, as raw install counts can be misleading in larger regions. Approximate top-performing UK regions by heat pump density (cumulative installs per 1,000 households):
| Region / area | Approximate cumulative heat pumps per 1,000 households |
|---|---|
| Rural South West (Devon, Cornwall, Somerset) | ~12-18 |
| Rural East of England (Norfolk, Suffolk) | ~10-15 |
| Rural Scotland (Highlands, Aberdeenshire) | ~9-13 |
| Rural Wales (Powys, Carmarthenshire) | ~8-12 |
| Rural Northern Ireland | ~7-10 |
| South East commuter belt | ~6-9 |
| Greater London (excluding inner boroughs) | ~2-4 |
| Inner London | ~1-2 |
Source: industry analysis using MCS install postcode data and ONS household counts. Dense urban areas typically have low heat pump density due to flat housing stock and gas-grid coverage.
Heat pump capacity by manufacturer market segment
Approximate UK ASHP unit shipments by manufacturer category for 2024-2025:
| Brand category | Approximate UK shipment share | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| European specialist (Vaillant, NIBE, Stiebel Eltron, Daikin Altherma) | ~50-55% | Premium positioning, R290 propane refrigerant uptake |
| Asian volume (Mitsubishi, Samsung, LG, Panasonic) | ~30-35% | Wide product range, strong distributor networks |
| UK & legacy heating (Worcester Bosch, Grant, Ideal, Baxi) | ~10-15% | Brand recognition, gas-installer migration |
| Specialist & OEM-rebadged (e.g. Octopus Cosy) | ~5-8% | Vertically-integrated supplier-led brands |
The shift toward natural-refrigerant (R290) units is a recurring theme; an estimated ~35-50% of new ASHPs sold in 2025 use R290, up from under 10% in 2022.
Heat pump growth vs UK gas boiler installs
Despite rapid growth, heat pump volumes remain a fraction of annual gas boiler replacements. Approximate annual UK gas boiler installs sit at ~1.5-1.7 million units per year (combination of new builds, replacements and emergency-fail swaps). Heat pump installs at ~75,000 in 2025 represent approximately 4-5% of the heating-appliance market by unit count.
| Year | Gas boilers (approx) | Heat pumps (approx) | Heat pump share of new heating units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | ~1,650,000 | ~57,000 | ~3.3% |
| 2023 | ~1,600,000 | ~40,000 | ~2.4% |
| 2024 | ~1,580,000 | ~58,000 | ~3.5% |
| 2025 (est.) | ~1,550,000 | ~75,000 | ~4.6% |
The Future Homes Standard pipeline and the proposed Clean Heat Market Mechanism (CHMM) are designed to materially shift this ratio over the second half of the 2020s.
Installer training and growth pipeline
Industry training capacity is a leading indicator for heat pump deployment. Approximate training pipeline figures for 2024-2025:
- Heat pump installer training course completions per year: approximately ~5,000-7,000 engineers
- Major training providers active in the UK heat pump space: approximately 30-40
- Average installer cost to add MCS heat pump scope: approximately £2,500-£5,000
- Time from training course completion to first MCS-certified install (typical): 3-6 months
Training capacity remains a constraint relative to long-term deployment ambitions but has expanded sharply since 2021.
Heat pump performance and SCOP data
Seasonal Coefficient of Performance (SCOP) is the headline efficiency metric for heat pumps. According to MCS data and field studies through 2024-2025, typical UK in-situ SCOP figures sit in the following ranges:
| System type | Typical lab SCOP | Typical UK in-situ SCOP |
|---|---|---|
| ASHP, well-designed system | 3.5-4.2 | 2.8-3.5 |
| ASHP, average residential install | 3.0-3.8 | 2.5-3.0 |
| GSHP horizontal loop | 4.0-4.8 | 3.2-3.8 |
| GSHP borehole | 4.5-5.2 | 3.6-4.2 |
The gap between lab and in-situ SCOP reflects flow temperature, distribution sizing and weather-compensation tuning. Recent industry reporting suggests average UK heat pump SCOP has improved year-on-year as installer skills mature.
BUS funding outlook and scheme extension
BUS funding has grown materially through the 2024-2028 period. Approximate scheme allocations:
- Cumulative BUS scheme commitment to date: approximately £450 million
- Announced extension to 2028 with combined budget over the period: approximately £1.5 billion
- Indicative annual budget headroom from 2025/26 onward: approximately £300-400 million per year
The scheme grant value of £7,500 per ASHP/GSHP voucher remains unchanged from the late-2023 uplift, although industry consultation has raised the question of whether grant levels will be reviewed before 2028.
Data caveats
This page draws together publicly reported data from MCS, Ofgem and BEIS/DESNZ. Several caveats apply:
- MCS data captures only certified installations and excludes self-build or non-MCS jobs.
- Some 2025 figures are interim or estimated where the official year-end report is not yet published; we mark these clearly with 'est.' or 'approximately'.
- BUS voucher counts and redemption rates are reported by Ofgem on a rolling basis, so cumulative totals shift monthly.
- Brand market share is approximated from installation directory listings; manufacturers do not always publish UK-specific volume.
- Cost ranges reflect typical MCS-aligned installer quotes; bespoke quotes can fall outside these bands.
- SCOP figures are typical mid-range estimates; individual systems vary widely with flow temperature design and emitter sizing.
UK heat pump deployment has moved from niche to mainstream over the 2022-2025 period, with annual installation volumes more than doubling and the certified installer base expanding nearly threefold. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme remains the primary grant lever, while regional uptake continues to favour rural and off-gas areas. With BUS extended to 2028 and budget rising, the trajectory points to over 100,000 annual heat pump installs by 2027/28 if installer capacity keeps pace with demand. Use this data freely with attribution to ecosavinghub.co.uk. Last updated: 2026-05-08.
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